Hot Nudge

What is Hot Nudge?

As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.

With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.

“We expect non-sports categories such as economics, politics, crypto, and entertainment to gain share over time,” says the analyst.

What is Hot Nudge?

“Our colleagues are our priority. We understand the concerns many will have. Impacted staff have been informed and are being fully supported throughout this process.”

Bet365 noted the impact of the UK government’s near doubling of the remote gaming duty, which increased from 21% to 40% on 1 April this year.

Additionally, a new remote betting duty is set to come in from April 2027, which will raise the effective tax rate on all sports betting products except horse racing from 15% to 25%.

About Hot Nudge

Japan’s path to IR legalisation was not straight forward. The IR Promotion Act, which set Japan on the road to casino-integrated resorts, was passed in December 2016 after a contentious debate. Nearly two years later came the IR Implementation Act, which laid out the regulatory frameworks for casinos, from entry restrictions to measures addressing gambling addiction and other social concerns. Yet even as the government pitched IRs as a catalyst for tourism, regional development and economic growth, opposition remained aggressive.

Among the opposing forces was Kenji Eda, a prominent House of Representatives lawmaker from Yokohama and a senior figure in the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan. Eda has been a vocal critic of the government’s IR push, raising concerns over gambling addiction, the economic impact on local businesses and whether the casino-led model would deliver the promised benefits.

The prospect of international operators snapping up Japan’s coveted IR licences gradually lost its lustre, as the likes of Wynn Resorts, Las Vegas Sands, Genting Singapore and Caesars Entertainment balked at the demanding regulatory framework, hefty investment requirements and uncertain returns.